Wiliam Wagenaar wrote:
> Hi guys,
>
> I have booked a holiday trip with the family to the US this coming summer.
> Because of the currect economic state however I am having mixed feelings.
Great idea!
> One half of my thoughts are about preparing for the trip and wanting to ask
> you what to visit.
The US is bigger than Europe. As you say the trip is already booked,
what areas will you be visiting?
> On the other hand I am wondering how welcome tourists are at the moment.
Regular stories here about how tourism is down, adding to economic
troubles. San Franciso and many surrounding areas depend heavily on
tourist spending. They will have open arms and welcoming smiles if you
show up.
> I keep hearing stories about people loosing their jobs and no longer being
> able to pay their mortgage and
> loosing everyhthing. Some have to live in tent cities. I know that staying at
> home will not help anybody, but
Story - Way back when, I lived near the UC campus during the Free Speech
Movement, Peoples Park protests and such events. For most of those
years, I had a roommate in my apartment. After he had married and moved
to S. Calif., he called one night to ask how we (I was also married, and
in the same apartment) were doing with the riots. I said "Huh, what
riots?" He'd been watching on TV as some fools turned over trash cans,
started fires, smashed windows, and so on.
He said the state governor had declared a state of emergency and a
curfew for Berkeley. I said it was completely quiet on our street and we
were about to go out to a concert in town. He said something like ' NO,
no, Berkeley is burning. It's dangerous, you'll get arrested!" We went
to our event, wished we had brought earplugs for the music, otherwise
had a good time and went home. We saw no police, nor anything at all out
of the ordinary.
It turned out that, as "news" as entertainment purveyors are wont to do,
the TV folks carefully chose camera angles to make a few, mostly drunk,
folks making a mess on a couple of blocks of one street look like a
major riot. And the newscaster's (term "news" in the context used with
reservations) made it sound like it was the entire city.
Lesson - Even someone who had been there during much greater
disturbances was fooled by "news" reports.
My own experience around my area is that things are pretty normal in a
day to day way. Cars and people are out keeping the streets busy, people
are eating out, buying things, etc. Yes, unemployment is up, from a
normal 5-6% to 10-11%, but most people still have work to do, lives to
live. And indeed, business is slower, more so in some segments than
others. Chuck's report was on furniture stores. That's pretty
discretionary spending. I was in Costco about 10 days ago, mid day, mid
week, the parking lot was normally busy, as was the store, and it seemed
pretty much business as usual. Low priced basics and consumables are
still moving.
We've eaten out a bit lately, as usual. It's hard to tell if restaurant
business is down in the modest places we frequent, but there are
certainly others also eating out when and where we are. Sure, more small
businesses are probably in trouble or have failed lately than usual, but
some are still starting up. We're really excited about at least one. The
closest Starbuck's closed and a third branch of a small restaurant we
love is opening in its place, much closer than the others. Whoopee!
A much beloved local drug store and more upset lots of people when it
closed recently. But they had embarked on a plan of expansion recently.
I spent decades in the food and drug retail business. I thought they
were taking big risks and in danger of failure even without an economic
downturn. They went from one local store carefully tuned to a place that
loved them to leasing and staffing separate offices and opening three
new stores all in a short period. One of the new locations failed, as
isn't uncommon (New store location and related areas were some of my
specialties.) I'm sure they were stretched way too thin and over
leveraged at that point. So sure, folks can blame it on the economy, but
I think it was maybe 90% management error and 10% economy. If they had
managed conservatively, no new office overhead, open one store at a time
and get it profitable before the next, at least the original location
would most likely still be operating.
People are losing homes, but the number in tent cities in at least the
vast majority of the country, is tiny. Most are finding alternate
housing, not out on the streets. Our friend in mortgage trouble has been
going back and forth with her lender, counselors, possible government
programs, etc. for months. She's still in the house, although looking
for a decent rental if she does have to go. But she is still eating,
clothed, under a roof, driving around, etc. She's self employed, and
business is down, but not out.
In my immediate neighborhood, real estate sales are slower than normal,
but houses are still selling for pretty much what they were going for
before the meltdown. Again, news reports make it sound like the price
losses are universal. I have yet to see a foreclosure sign in town. Not
to say there aren't any, but they aren't everywhere.
Too much talk, just to say come on over! Spend a little EuroCash, have a
lovely time and do your small part to bolster the US economy. If you are
near SF, I know a nice place in Berkeley with a pleasant guest room in a
lovely, quiet neighborhood where you would be welcome to stay for free,
leaving more money to spend on other things. ;-)
> I feel like we might offend people because we are able to have a holiday in
> the US. Last week I read on this list that in some stores more staff was
> present than customers. That cannot be good. What are the thoughts about this
> on the list?
>
So what, they are going to be angry at customers who do show up? No way.
They will exhort you to buy things, but that's not new. :-)
Moose
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