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[OM] Re: OT Probably controversial

Subject: [OM] Re: OT Probably controversial
From: Jan Steinman <Jan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2007 20:00:34 -0800
> From: Winsor Crosby <wincros@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> As for population, criticizing the the exact rate prediction while
> watching the number reach 6 billion really seems to be the
> controversial part.

If you want to see something interesting, plot the population over  
time together with the availability of energy.

Prior to the coal age, population was stable at a hundred million or  
so, tending to go up and down in a region as people chopped down all  
their trees. The average exosomatic energy available was about 40  
watts, almost all of which came from burning wood.

As available energy increased, the population increased in lock-step,  
until today an empty house with everything turned off still consumes  
several times that 40 watts.

Now humans consume over 2kW continuously, 24/7/365. The vast majority  
of this comes from non-renewable resources that will soon be in decline.

Correlation is not causation, but I'd take a bet that a lot of people  
are going to have to "go away" as energy becomes less available. Just  
look at what the push for ethanol is doing to tortilla prices in  
Mexico, for example. Driving SUVs will soon directly mean starving  
people in poor countries.

:::: The per capita wattage that is critical for social well-being  
lies within an order of magnitude which is far above the horsepower  
known to four-fifths of humanity and far below the power commanded by  
any Volkswagen driver. -- Ivan Illich ::::
:::: Jan Steinman http://www.EcoReality.org::::



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