>
>Bad luck to all, Chris. Was it not forecast?
>
It was, but it did not develop as it was forecast. As early as Friday, we
were told that we could expect heavy rain up to 2" beginning late Saturday,
starting from the far southeast corner of the state, then extending through
Tucson, then Phoenix, and approaching Kingman in the northwest. But, a strong
plume of very dry air came in from the west late Friday, stopping the plume of
moisture in Mexico, pushing the bulk of it to the southwest and then west where
it dissipated over the Gulf of California. Most of us thought it was over with.
Things changed abruptly Saturday night, and the GOES West satellite water
vapour imagery showed clearly what happened. A first area of storm activity
developed between Tucson and Phoenix, then moved slowly to the northwest
towards Phoenix. At the same time, a significantly larger area of storm
activity developed in the west central area of the state east of Parker, which
then moved eastward towards Phoenix.
The two storm systems met right over Phoenix around 0230, beginning with a
lot of thunderstorm activity for an hour or so. Then the rain began, growing
stronger by the minute. That cooled the ground quickly and the thermal
convection ended, along with the thunderstorms. The rain continued for hours,
eventually clearing from the WSW. It cleared away from where I am around 1030.
This morning many neighbourhoods are still under water, the catchment
basins and storm sewers being overwhelmed. It may take weeks before people can
begin cleaning their homes, and most of them do not have any flood insurance.
Chris
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
- Hunter S. Thompson
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