I sure know what you mean about PCs. I think it's different with
cameras, and for a relatively simple reason. Our eyes can't get any
value out of much more image info than digitals already can capture.
Regardless of other progress, it looks like digital has already
surpassed in all respects the resolution/noise/grain capabilities of
35mm film in at least very expensive DLSRs, and to at least a
considerable extent with cameras like the E-1, 300D, 10D and D100. So
numbers like 5-15mp for sensor size and file sizes under 50mb aren't
going to balloon to 50gp and 150gb over the next few years like the 64k
of memory and 10mb disk on my first IBM clone have turned into the 1gb
of memory and 120gb disk on this machine.
I know nobody agrees with me, but I think the next wave of development
after 10-15mp sensor cameras come down in price will be in better
electronic TTL displays to replace the mechanical mirror and smaller,
more sensitive sensors with equal or lower noise and lower power
consumption (remember that lower heat production gives lower noise, as
well as improved battery life). That's going to drive a big change in
size/performance. In 10 years, lens focal lengths will be so short, and
DOF so deep, that we'll be using PS plug-ins to simulate shallow DOF.
(And PS version 17 will require a 77ghz processor, 25gb of memory and
several terrabytes of free disk space to do it! :-) ) Nah, by then
firmware will offer DOF control in the camera.
Yours in the future,
Moose
GeoW wrote:
Moose,
I base my theory of obsolence on most all PC based tools, toys, programs, etc.
It's only been barely more than ten years ago that we were all using DOS.
What was your storage and memory back then? Would you say that that equipment
is still capable of much of anything compared to todays PC's?
Now fast forward ten years. Can you even begin to imagine what will be state of the
art then? Do you think it work with todays digital cameras? Not likely.
I need to think about it some more now.
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