And they have done it once again. The UKMet track is available on that
Florida ensemble, and from early on they forecast that Dorian would remain
offshore. This morning NHC is showing the exact same track, and now the
Florida coast is spared and Charleston will take a direct hit on Thursday.
Out of curiosity, I found that the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has a page for tropical cyclones:
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/tcyclone/tc_strike_probability?facets=undefined&time=2019083100,0,2019083100&unique_id=05L_DORIAN_2019
This is probably the EURO model that the evening news was referring to,
which also showed the offshore track.
>
> I was dismayed when the UK Met Office cut off public access to their
>Storm Tracker. It was generally more accurate. They were the only ones
>who got the track forecast for Sandy correct.
>
>>
>>Forecasts more than two or three days into the future must be largely
>>guesswork anyway, Chris. You must have seen that in your flying days.
>>
>>Since the BBC started a contract with a US company to supply its weather
>>forecasts, dumping the Met Office, I’m convinced that the service has
>>deteriorated. It now has forecasts to two weeks ahead; the BBC was conned.
>>
>
Chris
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
- Hunter S. Thompson
-----Original Message-----
>From: christrask@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Sent: Aug 31, 2019 7:30 AM
>To: Olympus Camera Discussion <olympus@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, Olympus Camera
>Discussion <olympus@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: [OM] OT: Hurricane Dorian
>
>Chris
>
>When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
> - Hunter S. Thompson
>--
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