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Re: [OM] OT: Hurricane Dorian

Subject: Re: [OM] OT: Hurricane Dorian
From: John Duggan via olympus <olympus@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Sat, 31 Aug 2019 11:56:04 +0100
Cc: John Duggan <john.duggan10@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
I agree Chris.
Luckily my daughter works for Natural Resources Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Although they are 
in turmoil (almost terminal meltdown) As a leader of a flood planning team she 
receives decent forecasts from the Met Office. Very detailed and surprisingly 
accurate.
Regards John Duggan.

Sent from my iPhone

> On 31 Aug 2019, at 10:07, ChrisB <ftog@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> 
> Forecasts more than two or three days into the future must be largely 
> guesswork anyway, Chris. You must have seen that in your flying days. 
> 
> Since the BBC started a contract with a US company to supply its weather 
> forecasts, dumping the Met Office, I’m convinced that the service has 
> deteriorated. It now has forecasts to two weeks ahead; the BBC was conned. 
> 
> Chris
> 
> C M I Barker | Gamlingay
> 
> 
>> On 30 Aug 2019, at 14:44, <christrask@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> 
>> <christrask@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>> 
>>    The forecast for Dorian has changed significantly in the past couple of 
>> days.  NHC shows that it will make landfall as a category 4 storm on Tuesday 
>> near Miami.  It will then go northward along the Florida Peninsula into far 
>> southeastern Georgia, get caught up in the jetstream, and then pushed back 
>> out to sea somewhere near Jacksonville or Savannah.
>> 
>>    The forecast is changing noticeably from one day to the next, and it's 
>> possible that Dorian will reach category 5, given it's ground speed and the 
>> sea surface temperature.
>> 
>>    The majority of models displayed on the South Florida Hurricane page show 
>> Dorian making a sharp turn northward and then moving along the coast as far 
>> as Charleston.
>> 
>> https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots
>> 
>>> 
>>> Keep your water wings handy, Jim.
>>> 
>>> 
>>>>    This morning the GFS forecast shows that the remnants of Hurricane
>>>> Dorian will be in far eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina next
>>>> Wednesday.
>>>> 
>>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Chris
>> 
>> When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro 
>>    - Hunter S. Thompson
>> -- 
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