>
>I'm not seeing how any of these models are anywhere near correct. The
>upper air data just doesn't read right to me.
>
>First of all, there is too much shear. Secondly, this thing just isn't
>moving. These storms, by this point in their development tend to
>become self-propelled. This one isn't at all. Based on that, I would
>say that it's going to get shoved farther east. Yet, the way the upper
>air layers look, I'd say that it's going to drop back down to a TS or
>Cat1 and lose the tops. As it comes ashore, it will be a major rain
>event with lower winds. It's just not taking control of its
>neighborhood.
>
It is strange, to say the least. I've been watching the developing
high-pressure system north of Bermuda. GFS missed this feature when
forecasting Sandy, but UKMET caught it and got the forecast right. If that
high-pressure system is strong enough it will prevent any tracking to the east.
UKMET has Joaquin passing right over Bermuda.
Chris
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
- Hunter S. Thompson
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