Gary,
Thanks for the input. My comments below.
True and a good move. However, you have retained data points for
auctions that were pulled early, for such reasons as mistakes in
descriptions, suspension of seller, sales before the auction met
reserve, etc. Without mental evaluation of the opening vs. closing
times, a bot probably cannot distinguish these. Also, there was a period
in December when the Completed Search closing value amounts weren't
corresponding to the actual auction closing values - often with as much
as a 33 0iscrepancy.
Hmm. you're right on that. I may have to look at the times a bit
closer. But I do throw out any auctions that have no bids. It's not very
easy to go through so many auctions and mentally calculate if the auctions
ended early. As for the errors in the auctions list vs. the actual
auctions, I may get screwed there if Ebay is in error. Any help would be
appreciated. If anyone knows this is happening, a friendly email would
help me to double-check those auctions individually.
If you have any data points with early ended auctions which are skewing the
data, I'd like to see the data so I can correct my master spreadsheet.
That is because the cycles are shorter than 6 months! There are often
cycles in prices that are due to psychological causes. I had quite a few
off-list discussions on that phenomenon with Kelton Rhodes, our
former(?) resident List psychologist.
True, the cycles seem to be short. I noticed an upward trend before
Christmas, and a LOT of good deals in early-mid January, as the cash
faucets were momentarily slowed. Unfortunately, I was one of those with
cash shortages, so I just watched the deals pass me by. I was really
searching for any longer-term trends.
<< the following have not had any successful sales:
38 Macro/2.8
350/2.8 >>
Sure there were:
38mm f/2.8: $327 (10- w/Bubble)
350mm f/2.8: $2000 (9+ w/Tamron 2X, Halliburton Case)
The first auction on the 38 Macro was on 1/16/00. The description says
"Olympus 38/3.5 Zuiko MC Macro f/Auto Bellows". Was it really a
38/2.8? I don't check ALL the auctions to make sure that the description
is accurate. That'd be a bit anal, and more time than I'm willing to spend.
I remember the second auction for the 350/2.8 for $2,000. I could swear
that that lens didn't make its reserve. Am I mistaken here too?
Never-the-less, good work, especially considering you aren't doing this
for a profit motive.
Gary Reese
Las Vegas, NV
-----------------------------------------------
Skip Williams
Westfield, NJ
skipwilliams@xxxxxxxxx
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