Ken Norton wrote:
>> As he points out, the small guys had a better chance of success when things
>> were mechanical. Electronics places a much larger premium on R&D (of a new
>> type) and volume production.
>>
>>
>
>
> I'm sorry, but I find this analysis patently absurd. The electronic/software
> age has actually been the greatest leveling field of all.
>
I disagree. Software, sure; many great examples of folks with an idea,
coding skills and total commitment making it big.
Finished personal computers, sure. Pretty much anybody can assemble a
bunch of standardized parts into a computer.
The key parts themselves? Only partly. See any new competition in CPUs
to Intel and AMD on the horizon? Looks more like Intel may have to prop
AMD up at some point to avoid serious anti-trust problems.
The disk drive business has consolidated, not grown new players. Memory?
Why bother, there's no money in it. Anybody new in graphics processors
and boards?
When you get into products that combine electronic, software, mechanical
and optical components in compact, complex ways, no way. A finished cell
phone, complete and competitive camera and other such products have huge
barriers to entry. If you really wanted to get into these businesses, it
would be much cheaper to buy a weak player than to start from scratch.
The one example I can see folks bringing up is Apple, with the iPod and
iPhone. But they were a large company with lots of cash and expertise in
many of the areas needed to make a finished product. The iPod was highly
imaginative marrying of existing technology with style, innovative
interface and smart marketing. The iPhone required them to buy/learn
cell technology. The rest was already in their sphere of expertise.
Yes, there are still many smaller areas where entry is possible, but
they are largely niches with limited growth potential because of market
size.
An example might be the i-gotU GPS data loggers, Although essentially
packaging of chips created by much larger companies in a clever and
useful way, it's a viable product at the moment. But what's their
future? There are several competitors in a niche that can't support them
all. And the potential market will dwindle, not grow, as GPS becomes
another must have feature of cameras.
Moose
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