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[OM] Re: 14 is the new 12

Subject: [OM] Re: 14 is the new 12
From: Moose <olymoose@xxxxxxxxx>
Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2008 21:24:04 -0800
Winsor Crosby wrote:
> Thom Hogan who has some pretty good rumor sources says that PMA in a  
> couple of weeks will see 14MP sensors in digicams (Yikes!)  and in  
> some DSLRs.  Makes one wonder whether the 6D will debut with the  
> original 1Ds sensor which was close to 14MP. 
Seems unlikely to me.

- That sensor is technologically ancient. Introduced in late 2002, it's 
about 107 years old in techie years. I wouldn't be surprised if it would 
actually be more expensive to go back. Processes and materials change.

- What would be the point?

   5D     - 4368 x 2912 = 12.72mp
Going to 14mp is just not an improvement by itself. Only a 3% 
theoretical increase in resolution

   1Ds    - 4064 x 2704 = 10.99mp
   1Ds II - 4992 x 3328 = 16.61mp

I think you misremember. The 1Ds II sensor would make more sense for 
your logic. Again though, Nikon has set their competitive points at 10 
mp, with the FF D3 leading with iso.

I wouldn't be surprised at a 6D with 14 mp, but a whole new sensor 
system aimed to cut off the D3 in the iso area. If they match N's IQ in 
a much smaller, lighter body at half the price or so, they are in a 
strong marketing position. I could even see no increase in sensor size, 
if that's what it takes to match the N iso capability and they can meet 
the rest of it's features except the weatherproofing and "pro" size.

Given the choice of paying twice the money for a much bigger, heavier 
camera with fewer mps and the same IQ, who do you think will sell more 
cameras? Assuming they can reuse lots of existing technology from the 5D 
and 40D, Canon's development cost should be quite reasonable, meaning 
fat margins right away. All they really need to develop is the lower 
noise sensor system and higher rez LCD. Everything else of any 
consequence is already in the parts bin, as it were.

I'm not saying the D3 doesn't make sense, but that it's not a volume 
camera like the 5D. It's a significant flagship camera that takes an 
important divergent path from the 1Ds III, rather than a "me too" 
effort. It will be interesting to see if their next FF effort goes down 
in size/price against the 5/6D or ups the mp ante while retaining great 
iso to go after the 1Ds III harder.

Moose

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