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[OM] Re: E-3 announcement

Subject: [OM] Re: E-3 announcement
From: Steve Dropkin <steve@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wed, 05 Sep 2007 20:08:11 -0500
Leandro DUTRA wrote:

> 2007/9/5, Steve Dropkin <steve@xxxxxxxxxxx>:
>> Bill is right in saying that a camera that loses the pixel race will
>> sit on the shelf.
> 
> Not quite.  To make an analogy, Apple has succumbed to the MHz race,
> but almost at the same time Intel had to give in.

Huh? "Fast" is a desirable property of any computer. Everyone wants 
their next computer to be a whole lot speedier than their old one. 
Is that "succumbing" to the MHz race? Maybe if Apple were extolling 
fractional increments in their CPU speed over that of some thinly 
disguised Dell or HP box. But I'm not be seeing those comparisons.

>> Pixel count is one of the few objective measures
>> of picture quality for the masses
> 
> Only an invalid one.

*shrug* Regardless of what you (or I) believe about pixel count, too 
many people buying cameras at the places that sell a lot of them 
_do_ use pixel count as a guide to PQ. So do many of the places 
those folks go to read commentary and reviews. Demonstrating a lack 
of difference between 10 and 12 MP is not something most camera 
sellers are prepared to do. So people go with what they know -- more 
pixels are better, more engine horsepower is better, more cable 
channels are better -- and money is spent. Too bad for Olympus.

>> High end/pro? Doesn't look like it. You can't go four years plus
>> between flagship models without pole-vaulting technically past the
>> existing competition with each introduction
> 
> There was a known issue with what was to be the E-1 successor;
> otherwise, it would already be here.  It was bad, Olympus can't repeat
> that.  But it would be unfair to think this is a pattern.

It takes two points to draw a line. So (as someone else pointed out) 
the E-1 was two years or so from announcement to sale. The E-3 
follows the E-1 by more than _four_ years and a few wooden models at 
Photokina.

Unfair to think this is a pattern? Maybe. But I, too, am a 
bottom-line guy. I've been around tech all my life. Good marketing 
beats good engineering many more times than not. And there's nothing 
like whipping up customers into a froth to buy your product and then 
have it not be available for weeks. Or months. Or years. Look at the 
number of guys on this list who have moved on to other brands and 
invested heavily in those brands, confident in what they see and 
what they hear. Olympus is not likely to ever see these folks again.

> Moreover, the E-1, specially as complemented by the E-510, is still
> competitive for many usages.  And if you add the other 4/3 system
> cameras, you start to see a not so bleak picture.  A system with
> involves 4 vendors, all of them launching important products almost
> every year, can't be so dead as you presume.

Nicely parsed. Four small players and they can manage product 
releases in the fast-paced digital domain _almost_ every year? I 
would feel more comfortable with the future of 4/3 if two of the 
four vendors you tout were selling more than one item (which happens 
to be the same badge-engineered camera) and if a large third-party 
lens manufacturer like Tamron or Tokina thought enough of 4/3 to 
commit _their_ resources to it.

>> So, with all that, can Olympus become #3 just selling prosumer ZLRs
>> and dSLRs? I don't think I'd put the mortgage money on that happening.
> 
> In some markets it is #3 already.  Europe, Japan and the rest of the
> world value price and portability, Olympus strengths, far more than
> the US which is slowly loosing importance anyway.  And what if it
> stays #4 or 5?  It would still be the system for me.  I value
> standards.

Yes, but if Olympus makes a big deal out of being #3, then 
qualifying that goal to "#3-everywhere-but-the-U.S." or settling for 
#4 or #5 misses the mark _they_ set for themselves. In the business 
world, that's failure. They'd be far better off aiming for #5 and 
hitting #3. I maintain that they will not hit #3 with the current 
product line.

Look, I want to see Olympus succeed as much as anyone. I don't want 
to see my E-1 become an orphan. I do want to see some good new 
Olympus ideas survive to be copied by others. :-) But, as I said 
before, I'm a bottom-line guy. Nobody from Olympus is whispering 
grand plans in my ear; no one is sending non-disclosure notices from 
Tokyo by courier. What I see is a system that faces some sizable 
technical issues, promoted by a company that doesn't seem to "get" 
what it takes to sell in the existing market. It doesn't leave me 
feeling very optimistic about it. I'll just keep using my E-1 with 
my kit lenses and old Zuiko glass and, when that no longer meets my 
needs, see who and what is still out there.

Now to go do something about this serious feeling of deja vu...

Steve


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