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[OM] Re: OT Probably controversial

Subject: [OM] Re: OT Probably controversial
From: "Johann Thorsson" <johann@xxxxxxxx>
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2007 12:54:31 -0700
This is true.  Part of the problem is that scientists speculate, that is
what they are trained to do.  They hypothesize based on all kinds of data
and scenarios, but they don't (or should not) claim to know the truth.
There is a reason why nothing can be more than 99.9% certain, and why things
are supposed to be "true" when the probability is 95%.  So "truth" in
science is not the same as other people understand it to be.   And all
scientific debates must be viewed with the fact in mind that the whole
purpose of all scientific work is to disprove something, you try to disprove
your own work or someone's else's work, but if you fail you claim that you
can't disprove it, but not that something is true.  I don't think people
generally understand this.

However, when many scientists come to a similar conclusion and others
commonly fail do disprove their findings or arguments, then the situation
changes a little bit.  That is the case in global warming.  There is ample
evidence available now that points to very high rate of warming, and that
this rate of warming is due to increased CO2 conc.  The current warming is
totally different from the other warming episodes which have undeniably
occurred because of this rate of change, and what we don't know is if the
organisms currently living here have the genetic material allowing them to
cope with a very fast changing environment.  That is one of the biggest
concerns.  Mass extinctions at some latitudes are not a far fetched
scenario, and what such changes would have for ecosystem services and
processes on small and larger temporal and spatial scales is simply unknown.

We have been playing with fire for a long time without knowing it until
recently, and now it seems that parts of the house have caught fire.  We
don't know how extensive the fire is or how much damage has been caused, but
we should certainly should try to put it out.  That is the only thing we
can.

I encourage you to watch the podcasts from UA.

http://podcasting.arizona.edu/globalclimatechange.html

J


>
> My problem with this whole idea of "Global Warming" is the
> pop-science that has been going on.  Basically, all I've seen for the
> past five years is the "scientists" have predetermined the outcome
> and do studies that support their conclusions.
>
> This isn't unlike the jealous husband that supposes his wife's
> putting on makeup in the morning as a sign that she's having an
> affair.  Regardless of the fact that she works in a styling salon and
> she has to look good.
>
> AG


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