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[OM] Re: Dipping our Toe Into Digital

Subject: [OM] Re: Dipping our Toe Into Digital
From: Jan Steinman <Jan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2002 09:58:14 -0800
>From: Albert <olympus@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>
>with the introduction of the Kodak 14Mpx SLR, it would seem like you
>can get what you never thought possible before, Medium format quality in
>a 35mm SLR.

That depends on whose numbers you believe. My research indicates that an 
optimal 35mm frame may contain as much as 18Mpx. Medium format may contain 
40Mpx.

In 1997, I predicted that price/performance parity between digital and 35mm was 
8 years off. I stand by that: it's now 3 years off.

(That doesn't mean there won't be earlier performance-parity cameras, just that 
they won't be affordable. The Kodak is what, a $3,000 body?)

I think price/performance parity with medium format is still 5 years out, with 
4x5, 8 years, and with 8x10, 11 years. Then kiss film goodbye in ~2013.

According to a recent survey, film sales have already peaked; film is now on 
the downslope of Geoffrey Moore's technology adoption lifecycle, characterized 
by what Moore calls "technology laggards." (in "Chrossing the Chasm")

This is not mere crystal-ball gazing; it's simple back-of-envelope math based 
on Moore's Law. (different Moore :-)

(Of course, there will always be a niche market for fine art photochemistry, 
just as some brush-media artists still mix their own egg temupra.)

So you "fence sitters" still have about 3 years to grouse and whine, or you can 
start getting some actual experience on a state-of-the-art-minus-one camera 
TODAY, then step up to the plate in 3 years.

-- 
: Jan Steinman -- nature Transography(TM): <http://www.Bytesmiths.com>
: Bytesmiths -- artists' services: <http://www.Bytesmiths.com/Services>
: Buy My Step Van! <http://www.Bytesmiths.com/van>

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