The 1700 AST forecast from NHC now shows Irma to be a bit further south
than earlier, passing over the northern coast of Cuba, then making a turn to
the north just as it begins to entre the Florida Strait. The ground speed is a
bit slower, which provides changes in the interaction with other weather
features. This is slowly conforming to the track predicted by UKMET and GFS.
In addition, the various model plots are tightening up, coming into a
better agreement, with Irma traveling north along the Atlantic coast of Florida
and making landfall near Savannah:
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots
Irma should be a moderate category 3 storm when turning north, and then
weaken to a weak category 2 of less by the time it gets to Savannah. There
will still be strong winds and a storm surge for Charleston.
>
> NHC just posted their latest forecast, showing Irma passing through
>the Florida Strait into the Gulf of Mexico.
>
>>
>>&%#*&@$!%$
>>
>>> Hard to say at this point, except that you will be getting a lot of
>>> rain next week. If the UKMET and GFS forecasts prevail, then Charleston
>>> will see the storm surge around noon on Monday. The forecasts should
>>> tighten up by Thursday, Friday for certain.
>>>
>>
>
Chris
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
- Hunter S. Thompson
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