It's now Tropical Storm Matthew:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204348.shtml?5day#contents
The 5-day track is consistent with the GFS forecast of yesterday. It is
forecast to reach hurricane strength tomorrow. That's pretty quick, going from
a disturbance to a depression to a tropical storm to a hurricane in two days.
It will reach category 2 on Sunday before crossing eastern Cuba.
GFS shows it being in the NYC area next Friday.
>
> Thanks for the update, Chris. I'm keeping a close eye on this one. Hoping
>for just a brush along the coast.
>
>Charlie
>
>On Tue, Sep 27, 2016 at 9:02 PM, Chris Trask <christrask@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>wrote:
>
>> I'm watching a growing tropical cyclone that is soon to pass over the
>> Windward Islands. Long term GFS forecasts show this storm passing over
>> Haiti and far eastern Cuba on Sunday, then over the Bahamas on Monday and
>> Tuesday. It will reach Cape Hatteras on Friday.
>>
>> Now comes the fun part. A moderate teardrop low will develop over
>> the Midweat on Thursday. It will meet the tropical storm late Friday, and
>> the two will merge.
>>
>> Now for more fun. An area of high pressure will develop over Nova
>> Scotia and New Foundland on Friday, which will push the combined storm
>> systems westward. This is similar to TS Sandy.
>>
>> The storm will pass over New York City on Saturday, then move
>> northward to Ontario. The moisture profile is troublesome.
>>
>> This is a bit of a stretch, but it deserves watching.
>
Chris
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro
- Hunter S. Thompson
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