> predicts new pro models by Canon and Nikon next year.
With the Pentax MF digital coming out and Sony kicking up their
intensity, the Canon juggernaut could be coming to an end.
Maybe.
With the 1Dm2n and 1DsM2n getting long in the tooth and the 5D
carving out a huge chunk out of their own pro market, I suspect
that Canon will throw out the beast of all beasts. 22MP at
least. But the competetion is getting pretty keen and not
losing any more ground. Most everybody that would go Canon
pretty much already has. We're now entering a more mature stage
in the DSLR world--where people are already starting to look at
equipment replacement due to normal wear and tear. It's at this
stage where Canon is most vulnerable and those who have
medium-format background will want to migrate back up to it as
soon as the right product is available.
Pentax *could* be it. Like Olympus, they've always kinda done
their own thing their own way, but in the end they've always
survived to live another day. I would have said that they won't
be a major player as they've always been *considered*
second-tier regardless of how good their optics are
(outstanding) and how good the user-interface is (very good).
Lack of interoperability/modularity in the medium-format world
hurt them, but yet they survived. Since Mamiya is now
effectively gone, as well as Contax and almost everybody except
Hassleblad which is reinventing itself with an incompatible H3,
Pentax could end up ruling the medium-format world. In the land
of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.
Olympus' timing of the E-3 is kinda bad for me right at the
moment, but in the grand scheme of things, may not be
unreasonable considering the end-user's equipment replacement
schedule. As good as Canon is, everybody gets tired of whatever
it is they have after a while. Just think about the backlash
against Microsoft as an example. That's why we have (in the
USA) elections for our political leaders once in a while.
With the next phase of near simultaneous camera introductions
from all of the major players (Olympus included), we should see
a stabilization for at least the next 18-24 months. Bottom
feeder cameras are always on what appears to be a six-month
intro cycle, but the pro-level cameras will stabilize. I
believe Canon's undoing will have more to do with lenses than
the cameras themselves. The next wave of pro cameras will
utilize new L-Mark-2 lenses which will require an all-new major
investment. At that point alternative brands may be considered
again--especially since the noise/speed/yadayadayada
specifications will be "good enough" from all of the makers.
At that point we should be in a world where most camera makers
should be back on more even footing.
AG
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