On 20/09/06, Ali Shah <alizookoman@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
>
> Not enough production capability? That is
> unbelievable. I think Olympus America does not want to
> muddle the market with DSLR's. The E-500 is doing
> really well for them and they dont want to mess it up.
The more likely story is that Olympus America overcommitted numbers for the
E-500 due to inadequate forecasting of the "next forthcoming" E-DSLR. They
probably did not study the roadmap well enough. Here's what I believe they
should have done.
Let's say that we want to bring in sufficient numbers of the E-500 to sell.
We know it's a hot model so we need to take advantage of the momentum and
therefore we want to maximise exposure. Know that Olympus America has to buy
the cameras from the parent company in Japan.
If I knew that the forecast would include the next model some 10 months
away, I would estimate saleable numbers across the country per month. An
estimate of this nature would easily provide a reasonably accurate idea of
how many units we should bring in to meet the expected demand. And I'm as
sure as hell that Olympus America has sufficient economic analysts, product
planners, unit managers et al to offer feedback across all the states and
their retail outlets to come to a reasonable number. And that would
precisely be what I would act on when ordering.
What might easily have happened is that Olympus America got overzealous with
the numbers and overbought. And they would have paid for the orders in the
old money. With the impending competition coming from the new Canon Rebel,
the price of the E-500 is also expected to drop and therefore the pressure
is on to focus on pushing (the E-500) out at a quicker rate with or without
seasonal special packages.
If the E-400 were to come in now, you can imagine the consumers doing a
"wait-and-see" rather than splash out on what is effectively an "older
technology" E-500. No matter how good the latter still is, consumers are
into "newness" and therefore sales will suffer unless the E-400 is not
brought in yet.
Having to deal with overcommitment of stock, Olympus America does not want
to lose out with the E-500. The presence of the E-400 will surely
cannibalise sales from the E-500. And so it is then that rather than send
the wrong information out to the market, Olympus America has now made a
statement that the E-500 stays and the E-400 not. But this is NOT to say
that they will never bring it in. That, I definitely 100pc do not believe.
As of now, the E-400 is not and will not be launched. This will give Olympus
America more time on their hands to reduce the E-500 stock burden.
Here is where they have been extremely myopic....
With the E-500 soldiering on its own - sans the E-400 that is - it has to
fight against the competition. And it will have to do this until the numbers
come down enough for Olympus America to then usher the E-400 in. Until then,
the E-500 must compete. Canon's Rebel will add incredible pressure but
that's not all. Between now and the time when the E-400 will finally make
its introduction, newer DSLRs from rival makes will enter the market with
flashier features and matching sensor technology and megapixels.
By then it is possible that the E-500 will slowly become long in the tooth
and without the E-400 around, the chances may be that consumers won't buy it
and move to other brands that are showing newer models. Sometime next year,
Sony's second DSLR will raise its curtains. Pentax's K10D will make a strong
move against the E-500. Fuji's SD14 will showcase also. Samsung will uncover
its third model nee Pentax. And we don't know what new consumer-grade DSLR
model Nikon might also come out with by then.
With all these pressures from various quarters, market share for the E-500
will erode but without the E-400 to provide the much-needed rearguard
support. Consumers who once might have purchased the E-500 will move to
rival models and not having the E-400, they really won't have any
alternatives from Olympus to consider since the E-330 is priced well beyond
either.
This is why I believe that Olympus America's decision not to bring the E-400
in fast is unavoidable but all the same, it is a tacttical mistake. It has
shot itself in the foot. It cannot afford to have the E-400 eating into the
E-500's intended pie. Bringing it in will spell potential disaster for its
E-500 stockpile. Not bringing it in will mean the E-500 will eventually
"canon fodder" (pun unintended) when facing an increasingly tougher
competition. Either way, Olympus America loses but the biggest losers right
now are the consumers.
By the time they decide to bring in the E-400, it mightn't be too late but
then again, considerable sales opportunities will have been lost forever.
That's myopism. And it's downright moronic.
Anyhow according to Oly Japan's site a mockup of the
> "E-3" will be at Photokina:
>
> http://www.olympus.co.jp/en/news/2006b/nr060914photokinae.cfm
Ali, this is very old news. I do remember sending you early information
about this including an explanation about this marketing strategy.
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