Above the consumer models, the market seems to be shaking out into three
camps.
1. Advanced P&S, up to 4-5 MP, possibly more with new chip designs. Prices
from $500-1100. Examples: CN G2/3, NK CP5000. More money buys more
features, more flexibility/control, better processors, but not necessarily
more pixels. The higher-end cameras just make a lot more of the MP they've
got.
2. ZLR-types, some SLR, some electronic VF. Prosumer, 4-5-6 MP. Fuji
6200, Minolta D-7, NK CP 5700, Sony 707, etc. $8-1500. More money gets
more lens range, more features, but not more MPs...yet.
These first two categories are limited in their MP by the OEM chip
availability. As Winsor predicts, the next round of chips will either have
more MP, and/or lower noise, faster speeds, less power, more density (e.g.,
Foveon X3).
3. Interchangagle Lens, DSLRs - 3-4-5-->14 MP! As in film cameras, the
initial jump in price gets you an interchangable lens camera. More money
then goes to more pixels, and/or faster frame rates, and/or better quality
pixels, and/or more features. So you can spend your money on the NK D1x
for high speed or the same on a Fuji S2 for more pixels. The sky's the
limite here. The pros will pay dearly to get the latest toys, and have
them be worth 1/2 of their purchase price in 12 months!
This is the same game that's been played in the computer industry for
years. First they ratchet up the easily-ratcheted componants, touting that
at the panacea (processor speed, graphics bit-depth, HD space, memory).
Then when the architecture or subsystems hit the wall, the makers have to
begin to improve processor architecture, memory througput, I/O subsystem
performance, software or firmware quality, etc.
So my conclusion is that the mainstream cameras have settled in on 4-5 MP
as the number that produces acceptable results for 950f the consumers.
They'll work on new marketing angles for that sweetspot while introducing a
plethera of new models to tempt the temptable above and below that midline.
Let's just hope that they're not junk that gets churned out of 6 month
product development cycles. The way that consumers treat their cameras,
I'd expect many, many to get broken within 12 months of purchase.
Skip
Original Message:
-----------------
From: Winsor Crosby wincros@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Thu, 5 Dec 2002 11:14:02 -0800
To: olympus@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [OM] Digital Christmas
'Tis the season. Full page daily ads from Samy's Camera in the Los
Angeles Times. Even big ones from Ritz. All digital cameras - no
film. What is bizarre is that they also list film scanners. I guess
for your old pictures. Pre-digital. Lots of 4 megapixel cameras in
the $500-700 range. 5 or 6 megapixels for about $2000-4000. Does
anyone doubt that a 7 or 8 megapixel camera will be available in the
lower price range next year?
Equivalent to going on a snipe hunt: waiting for an OM5, a Foveon
chip in a good, competitively priced camera, any new professional
system camera from Olympus.
--
Winsor Crosby
Long Beach, California
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