At 11:43 5/2/99 , Tom wrote:
>
>Just to start a new thread, when do people think digital cameras will eclipse
>film cameras in picture quality at consumer/hobbyist prices? I predict 2005.
>
I think it will be much later than that unless there is an unbelievable,
miraculous breakthrough in both technology and the cost of the technology.
Think of the image content possessed by a 35mm format Kodachrome 64 (or 25)
or Fuji Velvia slide. It is incredibly enormous both in resolution and
color. The current limitations as I understand them are sensor size and
resolution, the number of colors that can be represented in the digitized
result, and the cost for the amount of storage capacity required for such
an image, not to mention its physical size and weight.
For me to buy in to digital, it will have to be able to provide me with
(note that digital numbering begins with 0):
0. a camera body that costs about $800 that is the same size and weight as
my OM-4;
1. batteries that cost the same as a pair of 357's (about $5) and last
about six months under normal use;
2. the same information content as a 35mm Kodachrome 25 slide;
3. storage for 36 of these images in an object no bigger or heavier than a
35mm film can (OK, I'll settle for box of 36 processed and mounted slides
which isn't much bigger or heavier); and
4. a photograph storage device cost of no more than $10-$12 for 36 frames
which would buy a roll of Kodachrome 25 and process it (including slide
mounts).
Oops, forgot another demand! I also want to be able to display the end
product, at home, on a 72" diagonal screen (so I can tell my relatives
they've over stayed their welcome) for under $300 which could easily buy a
decent projector, projection lens and 60" by 60" screen.
The dollar figures are in current dollars which would have to be adjusted
upwards to account for inflation between now and whenever you think these
technologies will be available.
IMHO digital capabilities in general have increased dramatically over the
past five years, but extrapolating the current curve will not get us there
for another 20 to 30 years and it will be perhaps another 5-10 years beyond
that before it is within reach of the average consumer's budget.
There is another issue yet to be addressed by the digital community:
archival. How does one archive electronically digitized images for 100 to
200 years as can be done with dark storage of Kodachrome (even longer with
B&W)? Not that we'll be around that long to give any more slide shows or
have prints made, but it would be nice to know our progeny will be able to
view what we were and how we lived with a rich supply of photography
documenting our lives. The problem with digital information is that the
archive format alone has a current half life of about 10 years. Translate
that as sunrise to complete sunset in about 15-20 years. There is also the
problem of degradation of magnetic media, both in the medium itself and its
content. I think this also needs to be resolved before digital images,
however convenient they might potentially be, can replace our "analog"
silver halide technology.
Just some food for thought. In the mean time I'll keep using my OM-4 and
Zuiko's (along with the Rollei and Zeiss gear), keep buying slide archive
pages, and postpone indefinitely using the projector as a boat anchor.
-- John
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