[Top] [All Lists]

Re: [OM] Renewable energy, batteries, etc. was: LEDs R Us

Subject: Re: [OM] Renewable energy, batteries, etc. was: LEDs R Us
From: Chuck Norcutt <chucknorcutt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 2015 07:50:53 -0400
Bill said: "It’s all within the error-bar range." And he's correct. The problem is the actuals are brushing the lower side of the 95% confidence interval. I wouldn't call that not tracking the models "exactly". The model runs I showed you are from AR5 (the IPCC's 5th assessment report in 2013). Despite almost falling out of the lower bounds of their projections, AR5 announced that they had more confidence than ever that they are correct. Their overall confidence level in themselves is now 95% rather than the previous 90%.

If I showed you the same data labeled stock market projections you would call all of this "hubris".

ps: Trying to put error bars on a system that the IPCC itself once proclaimed to be "chaotic" (in the mathematical sense) is another exercise in hubris.

Chuck Norcutt

On 10/27/2015 2:01 AM, Mike Lazzari wrote:
Bill Gates interview...

....The heating levels have not tracked the climate models exactly,
and the skeptics have had a heyday with that. It’s all within the
error-bar range. To me, it’s pretty clear that there’s nothing that
relieves this as a big problem. But when people act like we have this
great certainty, they somewhat undermine the credibility. There’s a
lot of uncertainty in this, but on both the good and the bad side.

By overclaiming, or even trying to ascribe current things more to
climate change than to other effects, environmentalists lend weight to
skeptics like Chuck Norcutt. Like, in the near term, the Pacific
oscillation, this El Niño thing, has a much bigger impact on current
weather than climate change has had so far. Now, climate change keeps
/climbing/ all the time—it just keeps summing, summing, summing, and
adding up. So, as you get up to 2050, 2080, 2100, its effect
overwhelms the Pacific oscillation.

So we have to have dramatic change here. It’s unprecedented to move
this quickly, to change an infrastructure of this scale—it’s /really/

Options: http://lists.thomasclausen.net/mailman/listinfo/olympus
Archives: http://lists.thomasclausen.net/mailman/private/olympus/
Themed Olympus Photo Exhibition: http://www.tope.nl/

<Prev in Thread] Current Thread [Next in Thread>
Sponsored by Tako
Impressum | Datenschutz