You may be more likely to be pickpocketed in Spain, but you are MUCH more like
to be murdered in the USA:
Ahhh...data. We are data-rich but it is difficult for us hu-mans and
womans to decipher. Faulty statistical analysis is perhaps the main
reason scientific papers fail to pass muster....(gotta check the data on
that ;) ). When we look at big disaster/crime data we tend to look at
the big charismatic mega-fauna events. News media even give them cute
names.The insurance bean/bit counters have a name for this which escapes
me now. Basically the event rarely happens but when it does the shit
really hits the fan. That's how they make their money and if the public
thinks it happens more than it actually does....ca-chink, ca-chink.
The key is to parse the data for what is germane to the immediate
situation. Now translate this to travel. Looking at the US murder rate a
few things may (check the data) stand out. a) the victim is known to the
perp in most cases, b) a very small group trying to off each other. The
chances of getting caught in the line of fire is vanishingly tiny.
So what data should we be checking out which may adversely affect our
trip? If I were going to Spain and places in Latin America or any city
for that matter, taking measures to safeguard valuables on your person
would be more prudent than say in Scotland outside the big city. Would I
walk around at night in certain areas of New Orleans or Glasgow with a
camera around my neck? Depends upon how lucky I felt. :)
Mike
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