It's not necessary to worry about the relationship between correlation
and causation here since, despite all the loose talk, there isn't even
any correlation. Here's the actual data
<http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2012/12/global-tropical-cyclone-landfalls-2012.html>
In particular, scroll down to the last graph (the one with red trend
lines) and you'll see that global tropical cyclone frequency is on a
slight downward trend since 1978.
The World Meteorological Organization (looking further back) says the
same:
<http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/02/updated-wmo-consensus-perspective-on.html>
"Hurricane counts (with no adjustments for possible missing cases) show
a significant increase from the late 1800s to present, but do not have a
significant trend from the 1850s or 1860s to present."
As for the US we're presently in a major hurricane slump. There hasn't
been a Category 3, 4 or 5 landfall in the US since 2005.
<http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2012/12/record-us-intense-hurricane-drought.html>
"When the Atlantic hurricane season starts next June 1, it will have
been 2,777 days since the last time an intense (that is a Category 3, 4
or 5) hurricane made landfall along the US coast (Wilma in 2005). Such a
prolonged period without an intense hurricane landfall has not been
observed since 1900."
As to Sandy, expensive to be sure but unprecedented, no.
<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204840504578089413659452702.html>
None of this means the world isn't warming (although it hasn't been
since about 1998) but it does mean the prognostications of more frequent
and more intense storms have no basis in real world data. I haven't dug
up the data to show here but the same situation exists for US
tornadoes... no increase in frequency or severity.
Sorry to confuse the loose talk with actual data.
Chuck Norcutt
On 2/20/2013 11:43 AM, Jan Steinman wrote:
> I predict a lot more extreme weather events than we've been used to
> seeing. And NONE of them will be absolutely, provably,
> incontrovertibly caused by global warming!
>
> "Correlation is not causation." But it can be a big warning sign.
> Ignore at your own civilization's peril.
--
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