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Re: [OM] Shootin' Eight Miles High [was Santa brought me the Fuji F70]

Subject: Re: [OM] Shootin' Eight Miles High [was Santa brought me the Fuji F70]
From: Wayne Harridge <wayneharridge@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thu, 04 Feb 2010 08:23:58 +1100



> Chuck Norcutt <chucknorcutt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> 
> No guilt required.  All of the doom and gloom forecasts from global 
> warming result from silly climate models whose fundamental assumptions 
> about highly positive feedback mechanisms are beginning to fall.  This 
> recent study reported in Nature shows that the positive CO2 feedback 
> mechanism (CO2 begets warming which begets more CO2) is some 5 times 
> less than the models presently assume.
> <http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7280/full/nature08769.html>
> 
> I could add more (like negative feedback mechanisms not included in the 
> simplistic models) but I won't.
> 

Bottom line: a MODEL is not the REAL THING just something that tries to 
represent the real thing to make the maths easier.

How long have we been modelling weather ?
How often does the forecast a WEEK in advance turn out to be significantly 
wrong ?
What sort of accuracy would you expect from a weather model forecasting the 
weather 2 decades from today ? 

...Wayne

Wayne Harridge

http://lrh.structuregraphs.com
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