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Re: [OM] OT---Wierd things going on

Subject: Re: [OM] OT---Wierd things going on
From: Jan Steinman <Jan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wed, 10 Dec 2008 11:24:51 -0800
> From: "Ken Norton" <ken@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> The reality is, efficiency is ALWAYS driven by money.

That's only true in the Church of Growth within which almost all  
humans worship today.

I'd argue that what underlies money is always energy, and the  
resources provided by energy. But the economists and bankers prefer to  
work in a world of infinite energy.

> According to some opinions, it
> takes like 10 pounds of coal to mine one pound of coal.

I will assume you are engaging in hyperbole in order to make your  
point, or that "some opinions" is something you overheard on a bus. I  
know of no credible researcher who says that, and I spend considerable  
time on the topic.

But what *is* true -- which belies the myth that money drives  
efficiency -- is that as an energy resource becomes more dear, it  
takes more and more energy to provide that resource, eventually  
reaching the point of negative return, at which point NO amount of  
efficiency is going to provide more of that energy source.

When oil shot out of the ground in Titusville, Pennsylvania in 1859,  
you could harvest 100 barrels of oil at the equivalent energy cost of  
just one barrel of oil. Today, the ratio is closer to 5:1.

Coal has followed a similar curve. Most of the highest quality  
(anthracite) is now gone. If you demand anthracite for a particular  
application, I'll bet it does indeed require ten units of energy to  
get one unit of anthracite out. Perhaps that's the root of the "some  
opinions" you've heard.

The world has moved on to bituminous coal (soft, or brown coal). It is  
more plentiful, but dirtier, and has considerably less energy content  
per weight or volume as anthracite. Many researchers believe bitumen  
may be near its peak, and its price has gone way up, causing a  
subsequent increase in the mining of lignite, which is little more  
than peat, and has vastly less energy than anthracite.

So far, what you started with is true: Adam Smith waved his invisible  
hand, and market forces worked, keeping energy available by increasing  
cost. But look closely at something he never envisioned in a world of  
less than a billion people: we are now steadily moving DOWN the energy  
efficiency chain in our fuel use!

What is true of the anthracite-bitumen-lignite sequence has also  
happened with oil. Light sweet crude is well over half gone, and the  
difference is made up in high sulphur crude that requires more  
processing. When that is half gone (which many claim is already true),  
we begin synthesizing crude from "tar sands." The energy returned for  
energy invested for tar sands is less than 3:1, but still a positive  
balance, unlike ethanol, which many researchers claim takes more  
energy to make than is in the resulting product.

To many on this list, this will seem like a religious discussion, a  
matter of opinion and belief, rather than cold, hard, fact. That's  
true! Because we all worship in the Church of Growth, and any argument  
that growth cannot continue in a finite world is shouted down as  
blasphemy.

I will read your cries of blasphemy with a grin, but I'm going to sit  
on my hands and not reply to this thread. Contact me off-list if you  
want more information, or start with Chris Martenson's excellent  
"Crash Course:"
        http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

:::: Farmers don’t yet realize it, but rural areas have become no more  
than colonies from which cities are sucking the wealth. -- Kamyar  
Enshayan ::::
:::: Jan Steinman, EcoReality Co-op <http://www.EcoReality.org> ::::



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