Well, I'm envious. We have been promised/threatened with a cold
winter by the Met Office, but not much has materialised to date.
But I trust forecasts less and less now. Our military forecasters
were probably the best in the world (well, of my limited travels
anyway), much like our military air traffic controllers (not hide-
bound by civilian procedures like the FAA), but I am losing faith --
with the forecasters at least. The Met Office has, I believe, tried
to save costs by reducing the human intervention in the observing and
forecasting process and as a result rely too much their IT. And
computer programmes depend for their reliability on the assumptions
and algorithms of the programmers ...
Suffice it for me to write that the Met Office tries to produce 5-day
forecasts when what will happen in 12 hours' time is beyond them with
any suitable level of assurance, for a flyer anyway. And 3-month
forecasts should be produced for academic discussion than for serious
use.
Chris
[It's a good job that Frank van Lindert, a Dutch met man, is no
longer reading this ... ;-) ]
~~ >-)-
C M I Barker
Cambridgeshire, Great Britain.
+44 (0)7092 251126
www.threeshoes.co.uk
homepage.mac.com/zuiko
On 9 Jan 2006, at 13:02, Chuck Norcutt wrote:
> It's not cooold yet. You can still see the water. It won't be much
> longer and there'll be a foot of more of ice and a bunch of ice
> fishermen out there hoping to catch trout and salmon.
>
> Chuck Norcutt
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