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[OM] Re: [OT] E-3 speculation

Subject: [OM] Re: [OT] E-3 speculation
From: AG Schnozz <agschnozz@xxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 11:41:19 -0800 (PST)
Walt wrote:
> Beware of and view with skepticism anyone fool enough to
> pretend to have any inkling about what the future may hold. 
> Consider a few well-documented examples from some of history's
> clueless know-it-alls....

But how many predictions the other way have been proven wrong? 
Zeppelins?  Moon travel, robots, eradication of war...

We tend to dismiss those inventions of which do not fit into the
mold of current utilization.  Fedex, as a prime example, wasn't
"needed" because of the presence of Western Union.  The business
world revolved around electronic messaging and staff
duplication.  Those that needed "overnight" communication
achieved it through other means. Now FedEx has migrated from an
"Overnight Delivery" model to a 2-6 day package delivery model
as electronic communications has obsoleted the need for most
"hard copy" overnight deliveries.  So, Smith's "business model"
was only valid for relatively short period of time.

Remember, no technological advancement will ever come to
fruition unless somebody can make a buck from it. Invention
comes about from laziness and greed.  If men had babies, we'd be
gestating in incubators and playing golf the day of delivery.

Fovian is dead.  Great technology, lousy business execution. 
It'll get resurrected in twenty-five years when some patent
researcher rediscovers it and nobody is around to defend it.

AG

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